While major analytics firms like Counterpoint Research, Omdia, and IDC generally tend to focus on shipments when ranking the world’s top smartphone-making brands, there are obviously other key indicators of a mobile tech company’s success occasionally worth highlighting and discussing in detail.
I’m talking about profits, where Apple always reigns supreme (at a massive advantage over all of its rivals), but also smartphone production, which remains one of the only areas where Samsung continues to eclipse its arch-nemesis… at least for the time being.
The battle for first place is heating up
That’s a very slim and not at all comforting margin of victory for Samsung over arch-rival Apple. | Image by TrendForce
You probably won’t be surprised to find out that the two giants are nearly tied as far as smartphone production between the first three months of this year is concerned as well, at least according to a fascinating new TrendForce market report.
This puts Samsung in the number one spot, with 62.6 million units manufactured in Q1 2026 and a market share of 22 percent, although it definitely wouldn’t shock me if a different research firm named Apple the world’s biggest smartphone producer in a week or two.
That’s because TrendForce estimates the January-March iPhone production total at 60.2 million units, which is enough for a 21 percent slice of the pie, just one percent behind the champion’s market share. This teeny-tiny gap is radically different from the distance reported a year ago, as Samsung managed to increase its production from Q1 2025 by 2 percent while Apple somehow boosted its numbers by no less than 20 percent.
Will Apple take the full-year crown?
It’s obviously too soon to know for sure, but 2025’s draw between Apple and Samsung is unlikely to be repeated at the end of 2026. | Image by TrendForce
I simply cannot imagine how Apple could possibly lose this full-year battle with the iPhone 17 family (low-cost 17e model included) reportedly holding up so well in both global demand and pricing, an epic-sounding 18 Pro/18 Pro Max duo right around the corner, and a highly anticipated foldable Ultra finally expected to come out… relatively soon and thus likely to commence production (well) before 2026 ends.
Samsung, meanwhile, is not doing very poorly as far as Galaxy S26 series demand is concerned either, but it is feeling the pressure of rising component costs to a much higher degree than Apple, having to increase product prices pretty much across the board and facing “weakening consumer sentiment” in the low and mid-end segments. As such, I see no way for the company to threaten Apple’s supremacy… in terms of either production or sales figures.
What about the rest of the market?
For now, global smartphone production is not as low as you may have expected, dropping only 1.7 percent year-on-year to 284 million units in Q1 2026. But the market outlook is certainly not positive, with the year’s total volume predicted to stand at 1.051 billion units, which would represent a decline of more than 16 percent from 2025.
And that’s actually a rather optimistic scenario, with a “more severe” one calling for an “even more pronounced” annual decline “if memory price increases remain elevated” and top brands are forced to further adjust product prices accordingly.
Of the industry’s top brands, Xiaomi already suffered a huge decline in Q1 2026, while Oppo managed to weather the storm… for now, increase its production by 8 percent compared to Q1 2025, and earn a place on the podium. Behind Oppo and Xiaomi, Vivo and Transsion retained their fifth and sixth positions, respectively, with relatively small year-on-year production drops… that are unfortunately expected to grow considerably larger soon.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian’s passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for ‘adequate’ over ‘overpriced’.
