A 1-2 year gap, and the clock is still moving
In his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman writes that at Apple’s current pace, he doesn’t expect the company to catch up to Google for another one to two years. By the time Apple does get there, he notes, Google and other rivals will likely have moved even further ahead.That’s actually a tighter estimate than the 2-3 year gap Gurman called out back in 2024. However, while the progress is real, the problem is that the goalposts keep moving.
2026’s ‘The Android Show’ puts into perspective how far behind Apple is from its competitors. | Image by Google
The specific features Apple still hasn’t delivered
Gurman points to three capabilities Google rolled out with Android 17 and Gemini Intelligence that Apple promised back at WWDC 2024 and still hasn’t shipped.First, AI that lives across apps and services and can actually finish tasks on your behalf. Second, Rambler, which is essentially dictation on steroids, where you can backtrack, correct yourself mid-sentence, and have the AI clean it up into coherent text. Third, the ability to generate custom home screen widgets just by describing what you want.
That last one is the kind of feature Apple would normally turn into a 30-second polished demo reel. Google just shipped it.
When the Apple faithful break ranks
The most telling part of Gurman’s update isn’t the timeline. It’s his observation that even Apple’s biggest supporters on social media struggled not to praise Google after the Android 17 reveal. That doesn’t happen often.The Apple faithful tend to wait out the rough patches and trust the long game. Hearing them publicly tip their hats to a Google announcement is the kind of crack in the wall that gets noticed inside Cupertino.
WWDC 2026 is now a make-or-break demo
WWDC kicks off on June 8, and Apple has to do more than show up. It has to either narrow the gap Gurman is pointing at, or explain why it can’t. We previously laid out our sobering case that the WWDC reveal may just confirm what we already suspect.
I’m inclined to agree, and with reason. We already know Apple’s plan involves letting third-party chatbots plug into Siri through an Extensions system, and that Siri 2.0 is reportedly shipping with a “beta” label as a built-in escape hatch. Both of those moves read like a company managing expectations, not exceeding them.
I’d love to be surprised on June 8. As someone juggling an iPhone Air in my current rotation, I’m rooting for Apple to make this a real fight. I’m just not seeing the receipts that say it’s coming this year.
If you want more honest takes on the AI race and everything else mobile, come hang out with me on X at https://www.x.com/jojothetechie and on Threads at https://www.threads.com/@jojothetechie.
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