SpaceX pokes holes in AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon’s narrative

SpaceX, the company behind the Starlink satellite constellation powering T-Mobile’s T-Satellite service, dropped the filing for its initial public offering on Wednesday. The disclosure revealed several previously unknown details that show the Big Three may have miscalculated its true trajectory.

What’s glaringly obvious is that AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon will need to do a lot more than form an alliance or downplay satellite tech if they want to keep SpaceX from eating their lunch.

SpaceX has 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO)

SpaceX has already partnered with 30 global network operators to conquer dead zones. Its satellite-to-mobile constellation is a world-first, but it’s not stopping there.The company currently relies on V1 Mobile satellites to support messaging, over-the-top voice services like WhatsApp and FaceTime, and light data. There are 650 V1 satellites in orbit right now, serving 7.4 million devices monthly across 30 countries.

Starlink Mobile depends on spectrum, and the company recently purchased AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses from EchoStar. The deal wraps up in late 2027, perfectly timing the launch of V2 services.

Bypassing carriers

While SpaceX acknowledges that the success of Starlink Mobile depends in part on carrier partnerships, it didn’t rule out using its own spectrum holdings to offer 5G-like connectivity.However, existing smartphones do not fully support the NR-NTN (New Radio Non-Terrestrial Network) cellular standard needed for satellite-native 5G. Because SpaceX lacks direct deals with smartphone manufacturers, it still needs network partners to drive consumer adoption.

Regardless, the company’s eventual goal is to provide satellite-to-mobile service that doesn’t rely on traditional networks at all.

SpaceX points out that terrestrial networks are plagued by the same limitations they have faced since their inception. Land-based infrastructure only covers 20% of the Earth’s surface, leaving remote, difficult, and economically unviable areas stranded.

Even in well-connected zones, US wireless customers experience issues in one out of every 11 mobile interactions, per a J.D. Power U.S. Wireless Network Quality Performance Study. According to SpaceX, LEO constellations represent “a paradigm shift” that reduces dependence on land-based networks. That shift is becoming vital as telecom companies slash network deployment spending amid slowing financial growth.

The core message

SpaceX is under no illusion that satellite-to-mobile offerings will completely replace land-based networks. However, it does assert that the service has evolved from a backup option to a meaningful complement to terrestrial networks.

For now, the company will continue its partnership with network operators instead of flying solo.

SpaceX can leave T-Mobile out

AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon have been dismissing direct-to-device (D2D) tech as a low-utility service. Yet, ironically, they have teamed up to back struggling entrants like AST SpaceMobile to try and counter SpaceX’s dominance. As Investing.com points out, even though the Big Three claim to reach 99% of the US population, their coverage is highly concentrated. They have essentially abandoned 500,000 square miles of US land to dead zones. Thus, satellite connectivity isn’t quite the ancillary service they are making it out to be.

They are right to be intimidated, considering SpaceX controls 90% of the commercial satellite broadband market.

While Elon Musk may have no near-term ambitions of cutting T-Mobile out of the loop, the SpaceX filing makes it clear that there is no stopping him from doing so.